Kraken Releases New Statistical Model For Bitcoin’s Hashrate

Kraken Releases New Statistical Model For Bitcoin’s Hashrate

Kraken Intelligence, Kraken exchange’s in the house research team, has recently released a new statistical model designed to measure the Bitcoin network’s health and adoption. Kraken’s intelligence team reports that Bitcoin’s hashrate cannot actually be precisely known, but can be measured using block count and average block difficulty over time. Instead of measuring the hashrate using a traditional and simple line chart, the Kraken Intelligence team proposed that Bitcoin’s hashrate should be measured using a 95% confidence interval band. By utilizing this method, the analyst would be able to say with 95% certainty that the hashrate calculated lies between the band.


This method has benefits that current statistical models do not have; an example of this is that many common hashrate metrics that focus solely on block time and difficulty levels may be false positives and not actually reflect the current change in hashrate. Another factor to consider is that over time the confidence bands have grown wider, making it increasingly harder to definitively pinpoint the exact hashrate. When analyzing using a 95% confidence band, you can see that Bitcoin’s network hashing power continues to increase and has also become less volatile and more stable over time.

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